TSRA  / Tectonic Strain Ratchet Analyzer

Cotabato · Sarangani
1
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Baseline Pulse
35.55 min
Fitted stick-slip period
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Confirmed Events
11
Observation notes separate
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Last Confirmed
03:36 AM
Jun 10, 2026 · A10
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Model Fit
87.7 %
Timing alignment
Confirmed Event Log
Label Timestamp Interval Status
MS Jun 08 · 07:37 AM ✓ Confirmed
A1 Jun 08 · 01:12 PM 334.3 min ✓ Confirmed
A2 Jun 08 · 05:16 PM 244.0 min ✓ Confirmed
A3 Jun 08 · 05:51 PM 35.0 min ✓ Confirmed
A4 Jun 08 · 06:26 PM 35.0 min ✓ Confirmed
A5 Jun 08 · 10:30 PM 244.0 min ✓ Confirmed
A6 Jun 10 · 12:36 AM 126.0 min ✓ Confirmed
A7 Jun 10 · 02:12 AM 96.0 min −28 min early ✓ Confirmed
A8 Jun 10 · 02:55 AM 43.0 min +8 min ✓ Confirmed
A9 Jun 10 · 03:26 AM 31.0 min −4 min early ✓ Confirmed
A10 Jun 10 · 03:36 AM 10.0 min sub-pulse ✓ Confirmed
Observation Outcome Log
Source Report Time Linked Watch Onset Outcome Status
FELT Jun 10 · by ~09:55 AM 09:13 AM extended-phase watch Earlier / uncertain Significant felt activity Pending PHIVOLCS
OBS Jun 10 · 02:03 PM 7.0× long-phase watch Watch center elapsed No local outcome observed Elapsed
OBS Jun 10 · 03:32 PM 9.5× extended-phase watch Watch center elapsed No local outcome observed Elapsed
Next Observation Window
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Calculating...
Provisional Observation Windows — advanced after elapsed 03:32 PM watch no local outcome observed
Phase Window Watch Time Remaining Observation Class Status
1.0× 35.6 min Jun 10 · 04:08 PM Early post-window check
3.5× 124.4 min Jun 10 · 05:37 PM Activity-cluster check
7.0× 248.9 min Jun 10 · 07:41 PM Next long-phase watch
9.5× 337.7 min Jun 10 · 09:10 PM Extended-phase watch
Provisional Felt-Report Anchor
Anchor source
Elapsed 03:32 PM watch · no local outcome
Report time
Jun 10 · 03:32 PM
Onset
Observation window elapsed
Next watch band
~03:55–04:20 PM
Evidence status
Advanced · no outcome observed
Dashboard Chart
Tectonic Dashboard

How to read the chart

Read the dashboard as a timing diary. It shows when confirmed events happened, how far apart they were, and where the current observation windows sit relative to the fitted pulse rhythm.

1

The main rhythm is the repeated rise-and-reset pattern: quiet build-up, then an observed release or watch outcome.

2

The labeled phase bands organize time. They do not certify that shaking will happen or how strong it will be.

3

Confirmed events, felt reports, and model watch windows stay separate so the chart remains useful without overstating certainty.

Reading the Chart — Plain Language Guide

Sawtooth rhythm

Rising lines mark quiet stress build-up. Drops mark observed release and reset.

Peak height

Higher peaks mean longer phase intervals, not guaranteed stronger shaking. Amplitude is logged separately.

Phase markers

1×, 3.5×, 7×, and 9.5× organize timing around a fitted 35.5-minute pulse.

Observer vs instrument

Human notes and official records stay separate, then comparable. Agreement strengthens the timing read.

Raw Model Forecast Output
================================================================================ TECTONIC PHASE-OBSERVATION MODEL (HISTORICAL REFERENCE) Slip Threshold Forecasts (Reference Time: 2026-06-09 00:49:15) ================================================================================ - Fitted Baseline Pulse Period: 35.552 minutes Phase | Observation Window | Watch Time | Post-Window Class -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.0x phase | 35.6 minutes | 2026-06-09 01:24:48 | ELAPSED -> no confirmed local release 3.5x phase | 124.4 minutes | 2026-06-09 02:53:40 | ELAPSED -> no confirmed local release 7.0x phase | 248.9 minutes | 2026-06-09 04:58:06 | ELAPSED -> no confirmed local release 9.5x phase | 337.7 minutes | 2026-06-09 06:26:59 | ELAPSED -> no confirmed local release ================================================================================ ================================================================================ TECTONIC PHASE-OBSERVATION MODEL (A7 ANCHOR) Slip Threshold Forecasts (Reference Time: 2026-06-10 02:12:00) ================================================================================ - Fitted Baseline Pulse Period: 35.552 minutes Phase | Observation Window | Watch Time | Post-Window Class -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.0x phase | 35.6 minutes | 2026-06-10 02:47:33 | ELAPSED -> micro-pulse / timing check 3.5x phase | 124.4 minutes | 2026-06-10 04:16:25 | WATCH 7.0x phase | 248.9 minutes | 2026-06-10 06:20:51 | WATCH 9.5x phase | 337.7 minutes | 2026-06-10 07:49:44 | WATCH ================================================================================ ================================================================================ TECTONIC PHASE-OBSERVATION MODEL (A8 ANCHOR - LIVE) Slip Threshold Forecasts (Reference Time: 2026-06-10 02:55:00) ================================================================================ - Fitted Baseline Pulse Period: 35.552 minutes Phase | Observation Window | Watch Time | Post-Window Class -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.0x phase | 35.6 minutes | 2026-06-10 03:30:33 | WATCH 3.5x phase | 124.4 minutes | 2026-06-10 04:59:25 | WATCH 7.0x phase | 248.9 minutes | 2026-06-10 07:03:51 | WATCH 9.5x phase | 337.7 minutes | 2026-06-10 08:32:44 | WATCH ================================================================================ ================================================================================ TECTONIC PHASE-OBSERVATION MODEL (A10 ANCHOR - UPDATED OUTCOME) Watch Center / Observation Outcome Record (Reference Time: 2026-06-10 03:36:00) ================================================================================ - Fitted Baseline Pulse Period: 35.552 minutes - Architecture Rule: confirmed events, felt observations, and model watch windows are separate fields Phase | Observation Window | Watch Center | Observation Outcome -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.0x phase | 35.6 minutes | 2026-06-10 04:11:33 | elapsed / no local outcome recorded 3.5x phase | 124.4 minutes | 2026-06-10 05:40:24 | elapsed / no local outcome recorded 7.0x phase | 248.9 minutes | 2026-06-10 07:44:51 | elapsed / no local outcome recorded 9.5x phase | 337.7 minutes | 2026-06-10 09:13:42 | significant felt activity reported by ~09:55 AM; exact onset earlier/uncertain; pending official confirmation ================================================================================ ================================================================================ TECTONIC PHASE-OBSERVATION MODEL (PROVISIONAL FELT-OBSERVATION ANCHOR) Watch Schedule From Report Time (Reference Time: 2026-06-10 09:55:00) ================================================================================ - Fitted Baseline Pulse Period: 35.552 minutes - Architecture Rule: this anchor is provisional because exact onset is uncertain - Operational Outcome: 7.0x and 9.5x windows elapsed with no local outcome observed Phase | Observation Window | Watch Center | Operational Status -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.0x phase | 35.6 minutes | 2026-06-10 10:30:33 | elapsed post-report check 3.5x phase | 124.4 minutes | 2026-06-10 11:59:25 | elapsed activity-cluster check 7.0x phase | 248.9 minutes | 2026-06-10 14:03:51 | elapsed -> no local outcome observed 9.5x phase | 337.7 minutes | 2026-06-10 15:32:44 | elapsed -> no local outcome observed ================================================================================ ================================================================================ TECTONIC PHASE-OBSERVATION MODEL (POST-03:32 ELAPSED WATCH) Watch Schedule From Latest Elapsed Window (Reference Time: 2026-06-10 15:32:44) ================================================================================ - Fitted Baseline Pulse Period: 35.552 minutes - Architecture Rule: no confirmed event is added; this advances observation windows only - Operational Watch Band: treat the 1.0x phase as ~03:55 PM to ~04:20 PM Phase | Observation Window | Watch Center | Operational Status -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.0x phase | 35.6 minutes | 2026-06-10 16:08:17 | NEXT WATCH -> observe ~03:55-04:20 PM 3.5x phase | 124.4 minutes | 2026-06-10 17:37:10 | later activity-cluster check 7.0x phase | 248.9 minutes | 2026-06-10 19:41:36 | later long-phase watch 9.5x phase | 337.7 minutes | 2026-06-10 21:10:29 | later extended-phase watch ================================================================================
Description

A field record for timing, not a warning system.

observation archive

TSRA is an observational timing tool built from field notes, confirmed event timestamps, and a fitted phase model. Its purpose is to organize rhythm: what was confirmed, what was felt, and which watch windows are worth observing next.

01 Confirmed events

Official or instrument-backed seismic records stay in the event log so the baseline remains clean.

02 Felt observations

Human reports are logged separately when timing matters but confirmation is still pending.

03 Watch windows

The model marks timing bands for observation only; it does not certify an event or estimate magnitude.

Important: TSRA is not a certified warning system, magnitude predictor, or substitute for PHIVOLCS advisories, civil defense instructions, or professional seismological assessment. Treat every window here as context for observation only: useful for noticing rhythm, never enough for safety decisions by itself.
Learning Guide
Tectonic field notes, one plate at a time.
01 / 02
Field module · 01
Subduction & Trench Mechanics
A landscape guide to trench rhythm, phase windows, and why felt observations are logged separately from confirmed seismic events.
07:59 · narration source
Video unavailableThe local safety video did not load. Confirm /safety/Cotabato_Trench_Rhythm.mp4 is included in the deployed project.
Timed transcript
0001 / 0000Whisper Large v3 Turbo · M4A source

Machine transcript generated from the local M4A narration source. Active words follow the video playback time; review proper nouns against source context when needed.

Field module · 02
Twin Tectonic Giants
A companion guide for reading the larger tectonic systems behind local reports, fault rhythm, and provisional watch-window interpretation.
01:52 · narration source
Video unavailableThe local safety video did not load. Confirm /safety/Twin_Tectonic_Giants.mp4 is included in the deployed project.
Timed transcript
0001 / 0000Whisper Large v3 Turbo · M4A source

Machine transcript generated from the local M4A narration source. Active words follow the video playback time; review proper nouns against source context when needed.